Premier League predictions: Away wins for Leicester and Leeds; Manchester United and Liverpool can light up Super Sunday

After loads of success final weekend, Jones Knows is again within the prediction chair and previews all 10 matches, providing up his betting perception alongside the best way.

Southampton vs Leicester, Friday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports

Southampton
Leicester City

Friday thirtieth April 7:30pm

Kick off 8:00pm

Are Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho the brand new Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son? One of the preferred betting theories that price the bookies just a few quid earlier this season revolved round Kane and Son aiding one another to search out the online in a sport. Sky Bet’s “Return the Favour” wager revolving these two landed thrice earlier within the season – at 150/1 away at Manchester United, 66/1 at dwelling to West Ham and 50/1 at dwelling to Arsenal in December.

Strike partnerships are seemingly a fading development in modern-day soccer however chemistry definitely is sparking between Vardy and Iheanacho in current weeks as Leicester have negotiated their solution to an FA Cup ultimate and made secure of their place within the high 4.

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The pair have labored collectively to create 10 possibilities since March 3 with three targets ensuing from their link-up. Also, though it did not go down as an official help, it was Vardy’s break down the left that set up Iheanacho for the successful purpose within the 1-0 FA Cup semi-final victory over Saints earlier this month. One of 12 targets he has scored in his final 9 appearances.

Southampton, who’ve misplaced 12 of their final 15 video games, have conceded probably the most targets of any staff since January 1 (39) – that is 9 greater than every other facet in that interval. It’s wonderful to suppose they have been high of the Premier League on November 6. The Foxes may have lots to feast on with Vardy and Iheanacho to the fore in what must be an away win.

I’d say the Vardy-Iheanacho return the favour (Vardy to help Iheanacho and Iheanacho to help Vardy) definitely is value a have a look at 80/1 with Sky Bet. It’s a wager that will’ve copped within the 5-0 win over Sheffield United, so current information is clearly there to help it. You can play the safer choice with the 9/2 for Vardy to help Iheanacho OR Iheanacho to help Vardy relatively than each.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2

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BETTING ANGLE: Jamie Vardy to help Kelechi Iheanacho and Iheanacho to help Vardy (80/1 with Sky Bet)

Back 9/2 Jones Knows particular!

Back both Jamie Vardy to help Kelechi Iheanacho or Iheanacho to help Vardy!

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm

With such a large fixture in opposition to PSG on the horizon I’m not precisely speeding to the counter to again Manchester City right here at 2/7 with Sky Bet. However, can you actually see a state of affairs the place Crystal Palace breach the most effective defence in Europe? A defence that has saved Harry Kane, Erling Haaland, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe quiet in current weeks.

Palace’s return of 0.58 by way of their anticipated targets output per 90 minutes over the previous 12 video games is the worst within the Premier League. The numbers recommend they’ve finished effectively to select up three wins in that run, however such is the magic of Roy Hodgson, I suppose.

All 5 of City’s final 5 wins have come by a one-goal scoreline and this might be the same story as they shut in on the Premier League title. That is a 5/2 probability with Sky Bet.

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However, these wanting for a betting angle ought to deal with the possibilities of Fernandinho choosing up a card at 3/1 with Sky Bet.

That value definitely underestimates his possibilities. He has been booked in eight of his final 10 appearances in all competitions, averaging a card each 84 minutes as a mix of his ageing limbs and cynical nature is an ideal recipe for getting the eye of the referee. Palace will probably be enjoying on the break and in Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze they’ve gamers able to drawing yellow playing cards. The pair have gotten 15 gamers booked between them this season.

Fernandinho performs an element in my weekend 66/1 card accumulator that wants Fabinho and Oliver Norwood additionally to get booked as a way to land.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Fernandinho to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Back 66/1 Jones Knows particular!

Back Fernandinho, Fabinho and Oliver Norwood all to be booked this weekend!

Brighton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6 to win £250,000!

Brighton’s wretched dwelling type makes little sense when analysing their numbers, but, it is laborious to disregard when attempting to evaluate the market for this one. They’ve received simply one in every of their final 18 Premier League dwelling video games.

That hasn’t stopped them being all-the-rage within the markets but once more, although.

Graham Potter’s males are scorching favourites for this one at 6/5 with Sky Bet, which is well swerved. Leeds have managed to keep away from defeat to Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City in current weeks. That alone makes the 11/5 for an away win a wager to contemplate in what’s Marcelo Bielsa’s 136th sport as Leeds supervisor – probably the most video games he has managed at anybody membership in his managerial profession.

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One wager I will probably be backing revolves round Yves Bissouma.

Not solely does he have the most effective chant for a footballer within the Premier League (exchange his title to the lyrics of Tequila) however he packs probably the most highly effective long-range strikes of anybody.

Image:
Yves Bissouma can rating first at 28/1 with Sky Bet

Only one purpose to his title this season for a participant of his high quality sums up the place Brighton’s issues begin and end. It’s not for a need of attempting, although. He’s been taking pictures on sight currently, registering 10 photographs on purpose this month with various levels of success.

As proven by spectacular targets vs Burnley, Everton and Blackpool over the previous 12 months, one in every of these efforts will probably be flying into the online quickly sufficient and Leeds are the right opponent for him. They supply little safety for Kalvin Phillips up in opposition to roaming central midfielders and area will probably be afforded to Bissouma from vary. I just like the 28/1 with Sky Bet for him to bang first. Tequila’s on me, if it lands.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2

BETTING ANGLE: Yves Bissouma to attain first (28/1 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Fulham, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports

Thomas Tuchel will not admit it, however there might be some wandering eyes from Chelsea right here. Of course, their top-four problem is a crucial process however an opportunity to achieve a Champions League ultimate is inside touching distance. You get the sensation Tuchel will probably be daydreaming in regards to the Real Madrid sport throughout this fixture, which appears to be like positive to be a sluggish burner.

Chelsea
Fulham

Saturday 1st May 5:00pm

Kick off 5:30pm

Despite their enormous factors distinction within the Premier League, these two groups are literally fairly related by way of type.

It’s all about controlling the circulate of the sport whereas being defensively sound and fast in transition. Fulham have been affording extra possibilities to their opposition just lately however over an extended viewpoint, they’re really a troublesome staff to interrupt down, particularly within the first half of video games. Scott Parker’s staff have solely conceded 4 first half targets of their final 15 matches and have gone in on the break 0-0 in 9 of their final 12 fixtures. The solely staff to concede fewer than them in that interval of the match is Tuchel’s Chelsea.

A 0-0 on the break appears to be like a runner with Chelsea prone to edge forward as Fulham open up after the break.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0

BETTING ANGLE: 0-0 appropriate rating at half-time (15/8 with Sky Bet)

Everton vs Aston Villa, Saturday 8pm

I need to again Everton right here.

Having suggested them to complete within the high six at 8/1 with Sky Bet in final week’s predictions, I’m very to observe them within the run-in. There should still be a bit juice within the 100/30 for a high six end their fixtures.

A house win right here is priced at 19/20 with Sky Bet, which really is well ignored. The worth definitely lies on their possibilities of successful this match with out conceding. Sky Bet are dangling 5/2 about that state of affairs. That appears to be like good to me.

Seven of their final 10 wins have been achieved with that added bonus of a clear sheet, together with their final 4 victories over Arsenal, West Brom, Southampton and Liverpool. If Carlo Ancelotti takes Everton locations this season, it is going to be based mostly on knowledgeable organisation in defence. That was on present in victory at Arsenal, the place they restricted the Gunners to an anticipated targets determine of simply 0.8 and solely a Harry Kane ending masterclass stopped them from claiming most factors in that 2-2 draw with Spurs. In reality, since November 27 when Ancelotti determined to rein in his attacking gamers, Everton can boast the fifth greatest defence within the Premier League.

Villa – caught in mid-table after a superbly good season – look there for the taking on this one.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0

BETTING ANGLE: Everton to win to nil (5/2 with Sky Bet)

Newcastle vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports

It will take a courageous bettor to again Arsenal right here at Evens with Sky Bet, eh?

There is a case to argue that Newcastle must be favourites in the case of present type. The Gunners have received simply one in every of their final 5 Premier League video games, at backside membership Sheffield United, and if you happen to take it additional again they’ve received solely 4 of their final 13 league outings.

Newcastle United
Arsenal

Sunday 2nd May 2:00pm

Kick off 2:00pm

The 13/5 for a house win could be very tempting with Allan Saint-Maximin in pink scorching type and Callum Wilson prone to exchange Joelinton in assault. An improve of monstrous proportions.

Steve Bruce has cleverly negotiated the Toon away from hazard, shedding simply one in every of their final eight video games. Pragmatic soccer has been changed by productive soccer. It’s simple on the attention, too, with numerous emphasis on getting the ball shortly into harmful areas.

That new discovered attacking philosophy is painted completely by the very fact Newcastle have created the very best whole anticipated targets determine (8.59) of any staff within the Premier League during the last 4 fixtures, creating 10 huge possibilities – outlined by Opta – alongside the best way. Again, no staff has created extra.

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That attacking emphasis ought to make for an thrilling sport. And once I foresee such a state of affairs, the whole match photographs market grabs my eyes. The 5/4 with Sky Bet for 27 or extra ought to provide you with an excellent run. It’s a wager that will have landed in all of Newcastle’s final 4 fixtures.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Match to have 27 or extra photographs (5/4 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 Extra to win £5,000!

We’re owed a cracker right here aren’t we? Four of the final seven conferences between these giants have ended 0-0, spoiling many a Super Sunday alongside the best way. This one simply could be completely different. There’s no actual rigidity at play. Unlike earlier conferences there is not any discuss of titles and United are comfortably set within the runners-up spot with one foot already within the Europa League ultimate.

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Liverpool have extra to play for with a top-four chase on the road however Jurgen Klopp will not be altering his type regardless of the circumstances. With the shackles off, I feel it is going to be front-football vs front-football, which works in opposition to how the markets see this with the over 2.5 targets line set at 4/5 with Sky Bet. That appears to be like a tempting play.

This hope of an end-to-end encounter does relaxation on an early purpose, although. And that is the place my eyes are drawn to. Despite their high-flying season, solely Crystal Palace have conceded extra targets within the opening 10 minutes of matches this season than United (7). They are sluggish starters.

United could also be jaded after a barnstorming second-half exhibiting vs Roma and Liverpool have the instruments to get at United early and rating within the opening 10 minutes – as they did final weekend at dwelling to Newcastle.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-2

BETTING ANGLE: First purpose to return earlier than the tenth minute (100/30 with Sky Bet)

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Tottenham vs Sheffield United, Sunday 7.15pm, stay on Sky Sports

If ever an outright market supplied such little worth, that is it. Do I need to again Tottenham at 1/4 with Sky Bet? Absolutely not. Do I need to again Sheffield United at 11/1? Absolutely not. That most likely means the draw is the play however Spurs’ additional high quality within the ultimate third ought to see them over the road though they have been completely dismal within the Carabao Cup ultimate the place, to my eye, Harry Kane did not look wherever close to his sharpest.

Tottenham Hotspur
Sheffield United

Sunday 2nd May 7:00pm

Kick off 7:15pm

The playing cards markets is the place to be, although. This Tottenham facet are packed filled with gamers who draw fouls for enjoyable. No staff within the Premier League this season have received extra fouls resulting in a reserving this season with 74 opposition gamers choosing up a card. Lucas Moura, Harry Kane and Tanguy Ndombele function within the high 20 for fouls received per 90 minutes by any Premier League participant to have performed greater than 400 minutes this season. Moura sits fifth in that listing with a return of three.05 fouls received per sport.

Here, they’re lining up in opposition to formally the dirtiest staff within the league because the Blades’ tally of 63 yellow playing cards is probably the most produced by any Premier League facet this season. Paul Heckingbottom hasn’t actually modified the type an excessive amount of however he does wish to go along with a two-man base in midfield of John Fleck and Oliver Norwood. And since he took cost, the tenacious pair have been making practically two fouls per 90 minutes however have escaped getting booked. I can’t see that lasting one other week in opposition to such an opponent like Spurs. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for both Fleck or Norwood to be booked charges as the most effective wager of the weekend in the case of quick costs. Get on.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: Either Ollie Norwood or John Fleck to get carded (10/11 with Sky Bet)

West Brom vs Wolves, Monday 6pm, stay on Sky Sports

One factor you can assure after a Wolves sport the place they’ve shipped greater than two targets, is a response. It’s shut up store time.

West Bromwich Albion
Wolverhampton Wanderers

Monday third May 5:00pm

Kick off 6:00pm

  • After shedding 4-0 to West Ham, subsequent up got here a clear sheet in a 1-0 win over Fulham.
  • After delivery three at Brighton, subsequent up got here a clear sheet in a 1-0 FA Cup win over Crystal Palace.
  • After shedding 3-2 to West Brom, subsequent up got here a clear sheet in a 1-0 FA Cup win over Chorley.
  • Again, after shedding 3-2 to West Ham, subsequent up got here a clear sheet in a 1-0 win over Fulham.

If you can’t see that sample then please head to the opticians.

Burnley spanked Nuno’s boys throughout Molineux final Sunday in an embarrassing 4-0 defeat and though they’re dealing with a staff all-but sure to go down right here, a clear sheet will probably be demanded by the boss. It will probably be ponderous, it is going to be risk-free but when we come out the opposite facet with a 13/2 winner for the 1-0 away win, it’ll have all been value it.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Back the 0-1 appropriate rating (13/2 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs West Ham, Monday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports

Is West Ham’s overperformance, in accordance with the important thing metrics, beginning to catch up with them? I’ve been banging that drum for a lot of the season with fairly embarrassing penalties contemplating the outcomes David Moyes’ facet have been pulling out of the bag. They deserve huge credit score for a unprecedented season.

However, back-to-back defeats have began to bear fruit on my West Ham concept. Their bubble is at risk of bursting in the case of a top-six end. By the time West Ham kick-off on Monday Night Football, they may’ve sunk to seventh place.

And that is the final place you need to go for the time being. Burnley are in bouncing type, culminating in a jaw-dropping 4-0 win at Wolves which was fully and completely deserved in each division. Plus, Sean Dyche’s males are notoriously very laborious to beat at Turf Moor, followers or no followers, shedding simply three of their final 12 fixtures.

It’s simple to overlook Burnley themselves certified for Europe two seasons in the past. Quite a lot of issues fell into place that season, principally conserving a match group along with a constant efficiency degree. Judging by their final 5 video games, they’re again at that top-eight efficiency metrics. In that interval, they’ve crushed Wolves and Everton and are averaging two targets a sport whereas posting 13.8 photographs per 90 minutes. It’s front-foot soccer being performed with a objective.

They are a large value to register one other victory. And I’m joyful to throw within the probability of the sport producing greater than two targets. All of Burnley’s final 5 fixtures have gone over the two.5 line while West Ham video games have been very excessive scoring of late, averaging 4.4 purpose per-game. Combine a house win and over 2.5 targets at a really juicy 5/1 with Sky Bet.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to win and over 2.5 targets (5/1 with Sky Bet)

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