Premier League predictions: Burnley can frustrate Man City to a 0-0 draw at 16/1, Aston Villa to show top-six credentials vs West Ham

Our betting skilled Jones Knows known as a Luke Shaw help at 4/1 on Tuesday evening – he thinks Burnley can maintain Man City to a 0-0 draw on Wednesday.

Burnley vs Manchester City, Wednesday 6pm

Manchester City have gained by an mixture rating of 26-1 over Burnley of their final seven conferences throughout all competitions.

However, my first port of name when it comes to analysing a Burnley dwelling fixture is assessing the worth for a 0-0 draw. It’s too large right here at 16/1.

There’s been a mixed 18 objectives of their 9 dwelling matches this season, a league low, and 5 of these got here of their earlier fixture with Aston Villa. Nick Pope is arguably the very best goalkeeper within the Premier League on present type and Burnley are the kings of irritating the life out of a aspect. Just ask Liverpool and Villa.

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Obviously, City are firing on all cylinders, successful their final 12 matches and are seemingly marching in the direction of the title.

Yet, there’s nonetheless a small nag in my thoughts relating to their capacity to create large possibilities in opposition to a low block, particularly within the absence of Kevin De Bruyne. Cheltenham Town managed to hold them at bay for 80 minutes within the FA Cup, they required a farcical offside name to edge previous Aston Villa and created simply an anticipated objectives determine of 1.32 vs Sheffield United at the weekend.

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Here, we’ve 16/1 to play with on a 0-0 and that’s overpriced in my thoughts. Stop laughing at the again.

Cue Jeff Stelling: “And there’s been an early goal at Turf Moor!”

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (16/1 with Sky Bet)

Fulham vs Leicester City, Wednesday 6pm

This one simply screams draw to me, one thing Fulham specialize in.

Scott Parker’s boys put in a very Fulham efficiency at West Brom. For 45 minutes they have been shiny, creative and tactically very completed, but, they ended the sport maybe lucky to stroll away with a 2-2 draw as they failed to seize the large moments within the match by the scruff.

Meanwhile, Leicester felt the power of their lack of squad depth within the dwelling defeat to Leeds. Ayoze Perez simply merely is not Jamie Vardy, the drop-off Leicester see in that a part of the pitch is very large when Vardy is lacking. Plus, Wilfred Ndidi’s absence makes them extra inclined to the counter-attack. Both are lacking for this one, too. Vardy is within the means of recovering from a hernia operation and will return to coaching later within the week. Ndidi, in the meantime, suffered a minor hamstring tear within the 1-1 draw at Everton.

Tight sport.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Leeds United vs Everton, Wednesday 7.30pm

It’s very arduous to place confidence in Everton from a prediction perspective contemplating their present issues in attacking areas. No surprise Dominic Calvert-Lewin hasn’t scored for seven video games, his creators in behind him are actually struggling. In their final six matches within the Premier League, Everton have created simply 34 possibilities at objective – a median per sport that places them solely above West Brom for that interval by way of probability creation.

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One space of power stays set items although. An space the place Leeds notoriously battle having conceded seven headed objectives from corners and 10 in complete from crosses – no crew have conceded extra through each routes.

Yerry Mina has had 5 pictures in his final 4 Premier League and appeared primed to rating his third objective of the season. The 17/2 anytime scorer worth makes enchantment.

It’s Everton set-piece prowess that places me off siding with Leeds, who’re displaying a actual ruthlessness in entrance of objective, scoring 5 objectives from their final 18 pictures, figuring out at a median of a objective each 3.6 pictures. Whether that sustainable although is greater than debatable from what we all know from Marcelo Bielsa’s boys. I’m on the fence right here.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (5/1 with Sky Bet)

ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Yerry Mina to rating (17/2 with Sky Bet)

Aston Villa vs West Ham United, Wednesday 8.15pm

Some of my greatest work relies on plagiarising different individuals’s concepts and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe completely summed up my emotions on Twitter about many Premier League groups this week. He identified that this league is stuffed with very defensively-minded groups enjoying conservative soccer that depend on tremendous margins for fulfillment. For instance, West Ham have been on the suitable aspect of those margins as a rule this season, therefore their inflated league place.

In actuality, there’s not a lot between the likes of the Hammers, Everton and a complete host of groups, and I’d embrace backside of the desk Sheffield United in that bracket.

Of all of the so-called shock packages this season threatening a European cost, the one crew which have backed up their league place with performances, each in accordance to the attention and the information, is Aston Villa. They will stick round within the hunt.

Image:
Aston Villa have the attacking spark to break down West Ham

And, they’re greater than outfitted to get previous West Ham with out a lot fuss. Yes, West Ham gained the reverse fixture 2-1 however have been flattered that day, registering simply 5 pictures on objective in an anticipated objective determine of simply 0.52 in opposition to Villa’s 2.62.

I’m all around the dwelling win at odds-against.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Brighton and Hove Albion, Wednesday 8pm

A Liverpool win right here would arrange Sunday’s blockbuster with Manchester City very properly certainly.

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Brighton have all of the elements in place to be a progressive crew within the Premier League over the subsequent few years however they continue to be very flaky on this stage of their growth below Graham Potter. They nearly managed to throw one of the crucial one-sided matches of the season away on Sunday when narrowly edging previous Tottenham. Once they begin turning into a bit extra ruthless, they’re going to be a crew to observe. With 17 video games nonetheless to play a top-10 end may not be utterly ridiculous at 16/1 with solely 10 factors to make up.

Liverpool may spend a a part of the sport on the backfoot however will punish Brighton in the important thing moments of the match.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (6/1 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Chelsea, Thursday 8pm

Jamie Redknapp received it spot-on in his post-match evaluation of Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham after their limp displaying at Brighton.

He mentioned: “There are too many things I don’t like right now when I look at this Tottenham side, with Jose’s mannerisms, the way he puts little messages out to people. Not good signs to be honest, because they were flying earlier in the season.”

Throw no Harry Kane into the combo and Mourinho seems to have a confidence-drained aspect that look no higher than a mid-table outfit. Kane alleviates the artistic load on Spurs’ central midfielders however with out him within the crew, Pierre Emile-Hojberg is compelled into doing a job that does not match his industrious type. It’s straightforward to see Chelsea completely dominating the midfield battle on this one.

Thomas Tuchel has added a little bit of perception and vitality into the Chelsea attacking ranks. This seems a excellent time to play Spurs to me.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

What occurred on Tuesday?

Sheffield United vs West Bromwich Albion, Tuesday 6pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)

The market has moved very strongly in favour with Sheffield United forward of this, arguably, season-defining match for each groups. But, it is moved too far.

The introduction of Mbaye Niang at half time in opposition to Fulham utterly reworked the Baggies. He led the road brilliantly, linking with the very harmful Matheus Pereira and created three possibilities for his teammates in 45 minutes. I’d say with these two in tandem, they carry the larger attacking risk of those two groups.

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It’s arduous not to consider closely Sheffield United’s weak spot from defending set-pieces too when shaping up this match-up. Chris Wilder’s boys have shipped seven from such conditions this season and Ayermic Laporte and Ruben Dias each registered pictures on Aaron Ramsdale’s objective within the weekend defeat at City.

Sam Allardyce shall be exploiting this at each alternative with Semi Ajayi (three objectives since Allardyce took over) and Kyle Bartley (scored at the weekend) each given licence to go ahead from each set piece or lengthy throw delivered by Darnell Furlong. Bartley to have a header heading in the right direction at 11/1 makes enchantment with Sky Bet.

The Baggies are a large worth for an away win right here at 100/30.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (10/1 with Sky Bet)

CORRECT SCORE: 2-1

Wolves vs Arsenal, Tuesday 6pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)

After an 80-game run of no 0-0 attracts at dwelling, Arsenal now have seen two of their final three matches at The Emirates. Mikel Arteta’s type continues to be closely defensive centered which is in no way a unhealthy factor in the long term. For years Arsenal have craved being arduous to beat and Arteta could have simply solved that drawback. This pragmatic strategy does make them robust to watch at occasions although, one thing that Wolves can additionally very a lot be accused of.

On Saturday they turned simply the third crew within the final six years not to have a shot in a half of soccer in opposition to Crystal Palace.

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Any constructive end result will do for Nuno Espirito Santo at the second. This one could go the identical approach as their defensively sharp 0-0 with Chelsea final midweek.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (15/2 with Sky Bet)

CORRECT SCORE: 2-1

Manchester United vs Southampton, Tuesday 8.15pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)

The sensible approach of attacking this sport is unquestionably to get Southampton in your aspect in some regard. As Gary Neville mentioned: this United crew are an odd bunch.

Only Manchester City have scored extra first objectives in Premier League video games this season than the fast-starting Saints (12), together with racing into a 2-0 lead at St Mary’s within the corresponding fixture. However, United confirmed their capacity at creating turnarounds in matches by successful that conflict 3-2 finally – no crew has gained extra factors from shedding positions than them this season (21).

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With that in thoughts, the 14/1 for Southampton to be successful at half time and the total time end result to be a draw definitely represents an intriguing betting angle.

United have not scored from open play of their final two fixtures however you can’t accuse Luke Shaw of missing in creativity. His resurgence to type has given United a new attacking dimension down the left. Since December 19, no defender has created extra possibilities for a teammate than Shaw (22) – greater than Joao Cancelo, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson.

In truth, it is the precisely the identical variety of possibilities created as Bruno Fernandes in that interval with solely Jack Grealish (32) and Mason Mount (29) having created extra within the Premier League. It’s due to this fact fairly stunning to see 4/1 out there on Shaw to register an help, particularly with Kyle Walker-Peters – Southampton’s most dependable right-back – nonetheless unavailable.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Luke Shaw to register an help (4/1 with Sky Bet)

CORRECT SCORE: 9-0

Image:
Luke Shaw must be backed to seize an help at 4/1

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace, Tuesday 8.15pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)

The seemingly beginning berth handed to Allan Saint-Maximin is a large trigger for optimism too for these wanting to again Newcastle right here. Steve Bruce mentioned: “He’s had three substitute appearances and we think he could be ready to start.”

He’s coming again into what must be a assured crew too after they utterly ran throughout Everton with an out of the blue efficiency. They pressed in midfield, weren’t afraid to cross ahead at tempo and appeared typically properly organised at the again. A warning although, consistency hasn’t been Newcastle’s strongest level over time, so it is a harmful sport anticipating them to again it up.

However, Palace will do properly to comprise each Callum Wilson and Saint-Maximin, whose tempo ought to bother the again 4 greater than Wolves managed at the weekend. Home win.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

CORRECT SCORE: 1-2

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