Premier League predictions: Burnley to blindside Manchester United?

Jones Knows is right here for the midweek Premier League insights and betting angles. He thinks Burnley have the instruments to blindside Man Utd at 6/1.

Sheffield United vs Newcastle, Tuesday 6pm, dwell on Sky Sports

Steve Bruce’s males would possibly sit in relative consolation, eight factors above the drop – however protected from relegation they don’t seem to be.

Sky Bet have them at simply 100/30 to fall by means of the lure door because the merchants appear to firmly consider the distinctly common efficiency ranges seen from Bruce’s boys will meet up with them within the second half of the season. I agree.

The continued absence of Allan Saint-Maximin makes it very exhausting to put religion within the Toon to get a constructive outcome on the highway, even in opposition to a group with no Premier League victory this season. He is significant to the way in which they assemble assaults from their deep-lying defensive form. Without him, it is exhausting to get out.

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In the 12 video games with out him away from dwelling, Newcastle have a win share of simply 8.3 per cent. Contrast that to the 14 video games with him within the aspect on the highway and Newcastle boast a monstrous 42.9 win share.

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I nonetheless firmly consider Sheffield United are the higher of those two groups, regardless of their precarious kind and league place.

If these two performed this fixture 10 instances, the Blades would win greater than they’d lose. Yes, two factors from 17 video games is the joint worst begin made by any aspect in English soccer however confidence might simply be returning after breaking a 22-game winless run in opposition to Bristol Rovers within the FA Cup. Once they begin scoring the primary purpose in video games, the Blades will begin to decide up outcomes. Their season begins right here.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (11/2 with Sky Bet)

Wolves vs Everton, Tuesday 8.15pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League

Wolverhampton Wanderers
Everton

Tuesday twelfth January 8:00pm

Kick off 8:15pm

I’m throughout Wolves right here.

That mentioned, I really feel Carlo Ancelotti has achieved a fairly magnificent job to get Everton to 29 factors. He’s had to adapt like a prime supervisor does to shedding extra inventive members of his group like Lucas Digne and James Rodriguez. The model has gone from swashbuckling to snooze-fest however factors have been picked up in grizzly trend. With large gamers coming again to health, Everton could discover their rhythm within the coming weeks however to my eye the steadiness has been lacking of their performances, culminating in shedding to West Ham and solely simply squeaking previous Rotherham within the FA Cup.

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In reality, since December 18 of their three Premier League video games, Everton’s anticipated targets determine of a mixed 1.74 is the second lowest within the league, as is their haul of simply seven pictures on track. You’d anticipate a higher return from matches in opposition to Arsenal, Sheffield United and West Ham. They are straightforward to oppose at Molineux.

Having Leander Dendoncker again from damage makes Wolves way more dependable from a punting perspective. He returned within the FA Cup win over Crystal Palace and Nuno Espirtio Santo’s males regarded way more assured.

His athleticism, intelligent motion into the field and physicality flip Wolves right into a higher beast. In the six video games he is missed within the Premier League this season, Wolves have picked up simply two factors. In the 11 he is began, Wolves have received six with a points-per-game common of 1.8. The corresponding fixture final season completed in a 3-0 dwelling win and I can see the same finish outcome right here, particularly with Everton being with out Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (10/1 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8.15pm, dwell on Sky Sports Main Event

Burnley
Manchester United

Tuesday twelfth January 8:00pm

Kick off 8:15pm

Manchester United have put themselves in a unbelievable place to compete for the Premier League title.

Forget Liverpool on Sunday, it is video games like these that can decide whether or not they possess the required instruments to go all the way in which. Having backed them at 25/1 and 20/1 to achieve this, I’m hoping Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can avoid hassle alongside the way in which, together with on this harmful fixture.

But, my intestine is telling me there’s a banana pores and skin forward. Those taking the 4/9 for an away win ought to suppose twice.

If you ignore the annual 5-0 defeat at Manchester City, Burnley have solely conceded one purpose from open play in 720 minutes of Premier League soccer. That is a daunting report and it is no shock it is coincided with the return of Ben Mee.

United could have put collectively an outstanding away report, which means they’re unbeaten of their final 14 Premier League away days, successful 11 of these – but, they nonetheless do not carry out like a very dominant aspect. Wins at Brighton, West Ham and Southampton all have been achieved on the backdrop of a distinctly common efficiency degree for giant elements of the sport. They misplaced the xG battle in two of these video games, too.

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If Burnley can use their defensive prowess to repel United, then their probably route to purpose certainly will come from set items. For a group that do not get pleasure from a lot territorial benefit of their video games, Burnley’s report of 5 targets scored from set items and 39 pictures on purpose from these conditions is a really wholesome strike-rate with Mee, James Tarkowski, Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood all very dominant in one-on-one aerial exchanges.

United are conceding just below three pictures at their purpose per fixture from set items and have conceded six targets from such conditions this season, rating them because the joint-sixth worst group at defending lifeless balls. John Stones additionally breached their defence within the Carabao Cup semi-final for City and Watford brought on them points within the FA Cup on the weekend.

With a possible eye on the sexier fixture on Sunday at Anfield, United may get caught blindsided by Burnley, who’ve taken 10 factors from a attainable 12 of their final 4 dwelling video games.

I’m joyful to aspect with the 6/1 for a house win however punters also needs to notice 9/2 for the draw no wager and the 7/4 to have a draw and Burnley win in your aspect.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (16/1 with Sky Bet)

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Manchester City vs Brighton, Wednesday 6pm

If Manchester City play like they did in that jaw-dropping 15-minute spell in opposition to Chelsea then the remaining ought to lay down their swords now within the title race. They might go unbeaten till the tip of the season if sustaining that degree of efficiency. It was lethal.

However, there’s been too many stodgy showings nonetheless contemporary in my thoughts to suppose that Pep Guardiola has obtained them again to the constant beast they have been 18 months in the past. It was lower than a month in the past they have been creating only a 1.87 xG determine in a 1-1 draw with West Brom at dwelling.

Image:
Pep Guardiola celebrates after Man City's win over Man Utd

There ought to be few issues on the horizon on this one, although. Brighton are beginning to bore me. Graham Potter clearly is a coach able to making gamers higher footballers however from open play Brighton are yawn-inducing to watch of their present cycle of kind.

If you exclude penalties and probabilities created from set items, of their final three Premier League video games Brighton have created an xG of simply 1.83 mixed. I’m certain Potter will get Brighton flowing and assured once more however the place the possibilities are coming from may be very very like the times underneath Chris Hughton. They are reliant on set items.

That will not be sufficient to break by means of a City defence that, since shedding to Spurs in November, has conceded simply twice within the Premier League and allowed simply 56 pictures on their purpose – 18 fewer than some other rival. Home win.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Fulham, Wednesday 8.15pm

Despite reaching a serious remaining, it is not been the festive interval Jose Mourinho would have wished. The Leicester defeat revealed there’s nonetheless flaws on this Spurs aspect and so they look just a few factors brief of having the ability to compete with a totally revved up Liverpool and Manchester City. One of these flaws is having the ability to change their model to chase a sport at dwelling – as seen when conceding first and shedding to each Everton and Leicester this season. That issue does make them a tough group to belief at odds-on as the primary purpose of their video games appears essential to figuring out the end result.

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Can Fulham strike first?

Well, they have not fairly hit the heights they reached of their 2-1 win over Leicester in November and are winless since – albeit they’ve drawn their final 4 together with in opposition to Liverpool. It’s exhausting to foresee whether or not having over two weeks off from Premier League soccer will work of their favour or not. I can not belief them.

I’ll go together with an edgy dwelling win. Quality will inform.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (10/1 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace, Thursday 8pm, dwell on Sky Sports

There are smiles on faces at The Emirates once more. No squad within the Premier League depend on confidence flowing greater than Arsenal’s – granted, I can not again that up with any statistical proof however there have to be one thing within the water there that make heads drop and backside lips tremble throughout a nasty run.

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It wouldn’t shock me to see Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang go on a scoring streak now after he discovered the web within the FA Cup in opposition to Newcastle. When on music, he’s on a par with Harry Kane when it comes to changing probabilities.

However, I’d moderately make investments and rave about Kierney Tierney, who is not very Arsenal-like when it comes to his angle and consistency. His backside lip stays robust. He is chasing a 3rd help in a row right here, proving he has the standard within the remaining third to match his need. Much of what Arsenal do depend on the full-backs offering an overload and Palace are possible to be uncovered down that aspect. The odds on provide for a Tierney help makes loads of enchantment.

Meanwhile, Palace stay a group with restrictions.

There are solely three certainties in life: demise, taxes and Crystal Palace might be 14th within the Premier League.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0 (12/1 with Sky Bet)

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