Jones Knows is right here to arm you with Premier League insights and betting angles forward of the festive interval. He thinks Arsenal at 3/1 are overpriced to beat Chelsea.
Leicester vs Manchester United, Boxing Day 12.30pm
If Manchester United win this one, they may equal an all-time top-flight document of 11 consecutive away wins, set by Chelsea in 2008 and matched by Manchester City in 2017.
Included in that run was the ultimate day 2-0 victory over Leicester that secured United their top-four place, which means United are 12 video games unbeaten in opposition to the Foxes. That match was a cagey, tactical affair with each groups ready for the opposite to open up so as to hit on the break. I can this one going the identical method with as soon as once more United edging it within the second interval.
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In 2020, there have been 36 penalties awarded in fixtures involving these two groups, understanding at simply over one each two video games. Leicester have gained 12, United 11 and regardless of the expected cagey nature of the encounter, it is simple to see the trickery of each attacking items as soon as once more tempting defenders into rash challenges contained in the field – like within the final assembly between these two the place Bruno Fernandes opened the scoring from the spot.
Bruno Fernandes tucks away a penalty for Manchester United
You can get 2/1 with Sky Bet for a penalty to be scored.
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JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, Boxing Day 3pm (Play Super 6 to win £1million)
We’re simply over a 3rd of the best way by means of the season and the Premier League is beginning to take form. It’s a time of 12 months the place the league desk now does not lie. And Aston Villa are up there in ninth. With two video games in hand, too.
Win these and they might be second.
Dean Smith’s aspect look the half, whereas additionally backing it up with the all-important efficiency metrics. They’ve conceded simply 13 targets, solely Man City (12) have conceded fewer and Smith’s aspect have already stored as many clear sheets this season as they did throughout final season (7). A top-six end at 6/1 makes attraction.
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If Villa are bettering, Palace are flatlining. They have precisely the identical document as final season with 5 wins, three attracts and 6 defeats from opening their opening 14 video games. Villa are fairly merely the higher aspect. Home win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Southampton, Boxing Day 3pm, dwell on Sky Sports (Play Super 6 to win £1million)
Saturday twenty sixth December 2:30pm
Kick off 3:00pm
Southampton have misplaced solely one in every of their final 12 Premier League away video games, at Crystal Palace on the opening day.
But they’re unbackable at Fulham.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has established distinctive chemistry in key areas of his aspect with Oriol Romeu and James Ward-Prowse relentless in midfield and Jan Bednarek and Jannik Vestergaard an distinctive pairing at centre-back. However, the influential Romeu is suspended for this one with Ibrahima Diallo set for his first begin and Vestergaard is a doubt, as is Danny Ings.
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Hasenhuttl’s squad depth will probably be stretched over the approaching weeks and this seems to be a fantastic alternative for Fulham to flip some encouraging performances, at Newcastle particularly, right into a win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (11/1 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Boxing Day 5.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports
Saturday twenty sixth December 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Arsenal are on the ropes. They have been battered from pillar to put up this week. Right-hook, left-hook – is Mikel Arteta only one uppercut away from a knockout blow? Potentially.
However, rejoice Arsenal followers, the following few paragraphs will probably be a break from the adverse and emotive narrative.
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I simply merely can’t have Chelsea at odds-on. The wager has to be Arsenal at 3/1 for his or her fortunes to change and document a season-changing residence win.
Yes, they have not gained in seven Premier League video games, together with shedding 4 of their final 5 at residence. But, there’s a distinction on this fixture to these defeats: the expectation is all on Chelsea. Arteta’s managed and inflexible fashion of soccer is totally suited to absorbing stress in opposition to so-called superior groups. They are onerous to break down.
Let’s not neglect, Arsenal have gained six of their final 10 video games in all competitions vs ‘large six’ sides since July 15, together with their final Premier League victory at Manchester United, who’ve gained six of their final seven matches since that defeat.
Since the flip of the 12 months, Frank Lampard’s group have solely gained 5 Premier League video games away from Stamford Bridge – 11 groups have gained extra. It is a run of outcomes backed up by their numbers in assault. For instance, of their six video games on the highway this season, their anticipated targets determine is simply 7.54 – solely Burnley, Newcastle, Wolves, Sheffield United and West Brom have a decrease complete on the highway.
Even in opposition to West Ham on Monday, Chelsea appeared devoid of concepts. That scoreline flattered them.
Silva key to Chelsea hopes
Defensively, Arsenal have the construction and tactical nous to frustrate the Blues. Arteta’s boys have the sixth-best defensive document within the Premier League this season, a determine backed up by their ‘anticipated targets in opposition to’ metric which once more has them the sixth-best defence within the division. Chelsea statistically possess the very best defence so this has the hallmarks of a low-scoring encounter that could possibly be settled by one second of particular person high quality.
Each week the betting markets transfer in Arsenal’s course – they went off favourites final weekend at Everton – and this simply may be the time to catch them at a monstrous worth.
In tight video games of this nature, one group should not be as large as 3/1 and the 7/1 for an Arsenal win and underneath 2.5 targets must be taken critically.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Boxing Day 8pm
You really feel Pep Guardiola is choosing and selecting when to play with City’s ordinary attacking zest and when to rein it in.
The win at Southampton, the place they had been taking the ball to the nook with 5 minutes left, definitely felt like a brand new conservative City. Yet at residence in opposition to the lesser-ranked groups, City have been extra like their previous selves prior to now month. In wins over Fulham and Burnley and the richly unlucky draw with West Brom, they’ve registered 60 photographs, 43 of these from contained in the field which is essentially the most produced by any group in that interval.
Here they face a Newcastle group that have not progressed over the previous 12 months. Callum Wilson has added an additional scientific edge however as we noticed final season with him, he is unlikely to maintain this kind all through the marketing campaign. Steve Bruce’s males have been fairly lucky not to undergo back-to-back residence defeats to West Brom and Fulham on the steadiness of each their video games and their midweek defeat to Brentford hasn’t gone down nicely both.
Did somebody order a thrashing?
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 5-0 (11/1 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Everton, Boxing Day 8pm
To tar Sheffield United with the Derby County brush could be very, very harsh on the Blades.
That Derby group in 2008 grew to become the primary group in Premier League historical past to be relegated in March, ending the season with an all-time top-flight document low factors tally of simply 11. If United proceed at their points-per-game path, then they may overtake – if that is the fitting phrase – Derby because the worst ever Premier League aspect.
It’s saddens me to suppose that.
Chris Wilder’s boys aren’t even the worst group on this 12 months’s Premier League.
Despite their woeful factors haul, I’m adamant the Blades stay a incredible group filled with good footballers. If Wilder’s group confronted that Derby group – I’d be all over the Blades with most stakes to come out on prime.
We got here very shut to predicting that elusive first Blades win final weekend at Brighton, the place they had been tactically very good when down to 10-men and defensively majestic. Buoyed by that end result, I see no purpose why the the hosts can’t construct on that displaying and get that elusive win.
One of these excellent footballers is David McGoldrick. His resurgence in type has coincided with the Blades placing back-to-back performances in that had been on a par with final season. He scored twice within the defeat to Manchester United and was creator in chief in opposition to Brighton, going shut from a free-kick and organising the purpose for Jayden Bogle.
David McGoldrick is a key man for the Blades
He is Sheffield United’s principal purpose menace on present type however is priced up at 100/30 to rating anytime in opposition to Everton. That seems to be on the massive aspect to me. And I’ll be combining that with the Blades to keep away from defeat.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (9/1 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Burnley, Sunday 12.00, dwell on Sky Sports
Sunday twenty seventh December 11:30am
Kick off 12:00pm
The most gung-ho group in Premier League historical past meet the grisliest one. You could not get two extra completely different types of enjoying the artwork of soccer.
The purist in me needs the Bielsa-ball to come out on prime right here however the markets have utterly underestimated Burnley’s strengths for this match-up. At 7/2 it is onerous to ignore an away win.
Leeds have the worst defence in Premier League, conceding 30 targets, together with 13 of their final 4 Premier League video games. But the killer statistic that ideas me within the favour of a Burnley win is the very fact Leeds have conceded essentially the most Premier League targets from set-pieces this season (14).
Sean Dyche has obtained his boys again to a efficiency stage extra akin to earlier seasons with their defensive axis of Ben Mee and James Tarkowski nonetheless vastly underrated. For all Leeds’ eye-catching and free-flowing attacking soccer, Burnley’s defence is a factor of magnificence when it comes to preserving out targets.
They additionally possess relentless vitality in midfield with Josh Brownhill and Ashley Westwood and now have a strike pairing in Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood which might be again amongst the targets. Away win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Brighton, Sunday 2.15, dwell on Sky Sports
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion
Sunday twenty seventh December 2:00pm
Kick off 2:15pm
West Ham actually might do with getting Michail Antonio match. He has been sidelined with a hamstring downside for the reason that 2-1 win over Aston Villa on the finish of November and regardless of his wondergoal within the Crystal Palace draw, Sebastien Haller is not the reply.
That out of the blue purpose is the one severe effort the Hammers have had on purpose of their final two matches, creating an general xG of simply 0.82. I would not be shocked to see them undergo a sticky patch over the festive interval.
Brighton have drawn their final two matches however but once more the important thing knowledge factors to an enormous underperformance. In the attracts with Fulham and Sheffield United, they created a complete xG of three.36 while creating 4 large probabilities however scoring simply as soon as. Can they be trusted right here to flip robust metrics right into a win? Not for me.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs West Brom, Sunday 4.30, dwell on Sky Sports
West Bromwich Albion
Sunday twenty seventh December 4:15pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Can you think about the smile on Big Sam’s face if he was to turn into the person to break Liverpool’s 66 recreation unbeaten residence run? It could be the final word ‘mic drop’ second.
West Brom are 25/1 to accomplish that. And, truthfully, I’d most likely nonetheless be apprehensive of backing them for those who provided me 250/1.
Liverpool’s staggering run will probably be ended by somebody quickly however there will probably be different days for that challenge. Here, they may merely carry an excessive amount of firepower.
With the fast schedule of video games on the horizon, there is a robust likelihood Liverpool will ease off the gasoline within the second interval as soon as the sport is sewn up so as to relaxation some limbs. Klopp’s boys, who will probably be more energizing than they’ve been all season after an eight-day relaxation interval between video games, have scored extra first-half targets than every other Premier League aspect this season (17), so are positioned to go for West Brom’s throat within the early knockings of this one.
That makes the two/1 for essentially the most targets to come within the first half an attention-grabbing angle to think about.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Tottenham, Sunday 7.15, dwell on Sky Sports
This is an enormous interval for Jose Mourinho.
For a supervisor who ensures outcomes, three straight league defeats would not precisely sit nicely with all involved with Spurs. In truth, it is one thing they have not skilled within the Premier League since November 2012 after they suffered straight defeats to Wigan, Manchester City and Arsenal.
Wolves had been on the tip of a typical Burnley efficiency on a moist and windy evening at Turf Moor – a recreation the place Nuno Espirito Santo cleverly diverted the eye from his group choice failings with a fairly pointless dig at referee Lee Mason. For this one, the place counter-attacking will probably be on the menu, absolutely Adama Traore will probably be ushered again in from the beginning.
It’s at all times simple to forgive a group a defeat at Burnley, and at Molineux, Wolves nonetheless are a tough group for the massive groups to cope with – as seen when beating Chelsea of their earlier fixture.
The first purpose will undoubtedly form this match greater than ordinary. It’s too tight to name.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
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