Jones Knows is here to arm you with some betting angles and insights ahead of the weekend.
Brighton vs Sheffield United, Sunday 12pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton and Hove Albion
Sunday 20th December 11:30am
Kick off 12:00pm
My ‘stop backing Sheffield United’ patch has fallen off my arm again. Just one more hit – this will be the last time, promise.
The form of David McGoldrick has rekindled my faith. He is instrumental in the way the Blades construct attacks. When he plays well, Sheffield United play well. Since coming on as a half time substitute in the defeat at Southampton he’s created three chances in 135 minutes and scored twice. Confidence is obviously a huge issue at the club but McGoldrick looks back to somewhere near his best. If he can inspire those around him, then the Blades are more than capable of winning this one and make plenty of appeal at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
David McGoldrick is a key man for the Blades
Brighton have won just one of their last 15 Premier League home games (D7 L7) and there will be huge expectation on them to pick up maximum points in front of their fans. They’ve failed to beat West Brom and Burnley at the Amex this season and the Blades, despite their precarious league position, are to my eye at least, on a level with those two fellow strugglers. They can nick this.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1 (11/1 with Sky Bet)
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- Hits and misses: Arsenal issues – where to start?
- Two years of Ole: Has the experiment worked?
- Klopp: We wore finishing boots! | Roy: Palace humiliated
- Rashford: Man Utd can win big trophies
- Arteta: Arsenal had no luck in Everton loss
- Watford boss Ivic sacked after four months
- Everton move second after piling misery on Arsenal
- PL predictions: Sheff Utd to win at last?
Tottenham vs Leicester, Sunday 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
Sunday 20th December 2:00pm
Kick off 2:15pm
Brendan Rodgers really needs to do something different against Jose Mourinho, doesn’t he?
Mourinho is unbeaten in seven managerial meetings against Rodgers in all competitions (W5 D2) – it’s no coincidence either.
Leicester enjoyed 71 per cent possession in the meeting between these two in July but lost 3-0 as the Foxes showed yet again they are at their most effective in games when enjoying less possession.
- Rodgers: Kane dropping deeper has improved Spurs
- Dele Alli 360: The view from all sides
Mourinho is more comfortable at sitting off teams than Rodgers, who naturally is a more attack-minded coach and perhaps allows his ego to influence his tactical decision making. Spurs are a fiercer beast with better organisation than the one that swatted the Foxes aside in the summer so I can’t foresee too many problems for them if they defend and counter-attack with their usual slickness.
Harry Kane has scored more goals against Leicester in the Premier League (14) than any other club in his career with 10 in his last five starts. With Leicester vulnerable aerially at the back, the 10/1 for Kane to score a header is a fantastic value bet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Leeds United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League
Sunday 20th December 4:15pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Well this one will be fun, fun, fun.
With Leeds basing their whole game around one v ones, my whole philosophy regarding predicting a match outcome in their games is based around who simply has the better players. Leeds have beaten Fulham, Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Newcastle this season – all teams you’d expect to be in the bottom half of the table come the end of the season. But they have lost to Leicester, Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea, teams very much on course for a top-10 finish.
Manchester United have the superior players in this one, so a high-scoring home win is the play.
But, a betting angle to consider is surrounding the total match shots market offered up by Sky Bet. Leeds have been involved in four of the top five games in terms of match shots this season (39,38,35,35). In fact, Leeds have created the most chances in the Premier League this season (151), which is a staggering achievement.
Manchester United are at their best when given space to work in and aren’t afraid of being involved in shot-crazy games themselves (35 vs Newcastle, 34 vs West Ham) – if there’s an early goal in this one then the game to have 29 or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet could prove to be one of the most lucrative Even money shots of all-time.
The most shots seen in any one Premier League over the past 10 years was when 52 was recorded as QPR beat Leicester 3-2 in 2014. That record could be under threat here – and Sky Bet are offering 250/1 for the game to produce 53 or more shots.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 4-2 (25/1 with Sky Bet)
West Brom vs Aston Villa, Sunday 7.15pm
When you need a bounce factor, no one boings like Big Sam. He might just be the perfect man for the Baggies.
Backing him to make an instant impact could be a shrewd move too.
On the three occasions when Allardyce’s first game in charge of a club has been at home, he’s won every match, without conceding too.
- Will Big Sam’s ‘survival blueprint’ work again?
And to stretch that out a little further, in his first home game as a new boss in the Premier League at Bolton, Newcastle, Blackburn, Sunderland, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Everton he’s conceded just twice in seven games. Despite just having three days to get the Baggies players organised, I’m confident he’ll make them hard to beat.
And, Villa arrive here on a bit of a downer.
Since Ross Barkley limped off in the early stages of the defeat at Brighton, Villa have lost their edge and ability to create high probability chances. Including the Brighton defeat, Villa have scored just three goals in the four matches without Barkley, taking just four points from a possible 12. With him they average 2.5 goals per game without it’s just 0.7.
Sam Allardyce says he is ‘hungrier and more determined than ever’, having been out of football for two and half years before taking his new job at West Brom
I think Jack Grealish is missing his buddy too. Both are good mates off the pitch and that relationship is mirrored on it. Although still seeing plenty of the ball and looking a threat, Grealish has failed to have a shot on target in three of the four games without Barkley and has failed to register an assist without his mate on the pitch. I’m sure Big Sam will have a plan for him.
West Brom to win without conceding is a very juicy 6/1.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (11/1 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Wolves, Monday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Monday 21st December 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
A Wolves shirt with Jones Knows imprinted on the back is certainly on my Christmas list. They made me look like the second coming of Jesus Christ himself in midweek when they delivered a 2-1 win – as predicted in this very column. And, the 13/2 for a Ruben Neves shot along with Wolves to avoid defeat landed in my Jones Knows betting-focused column.
You get the feeling this one will be a dour encounter with little of the way of exciting action at least for 45 minutes. Since promotion back to Premier League in 2018, Wolves have failed to score a first half goal in 63 of 89 games and a switch back to a back three only enhances the chances of a low scoring first half – as seen against Chelsea where it was 0-0 at the break.
Wolves’ quality through Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence should start to shine through as the game progresses. The 4/1 for a Draw/Wolves in the half-time, full-time market is appealing against a Burnley side, who are the lowest scorers in English football with just six goals.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs West Ham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
West Ham United
Monday 21st December 7:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Some may have this down as another banana skin for Chelsea. Not me.
Frank Lampard has so many attacking options available to him, it’s easy for him take an out-of-form player out of the limelight and replace him with a top-quality replacement. Timo Werner and Kai Havertz have looked a little jaded in recent weeks so freshening it up with Callum Hudson-Odoi or Hakim Zieych should kick Chelsea back into gear. Plus, Christian Pulisic showed moments of real quality in the defeat at Wolves – he might be about to hit top form.
Lampard: No regrets over Rice
This is going to sound ridiculous after what he did on Wednesday night, but West Ham won’t be going anywhere fast with Sebastien Haller leading the line. In games where they have to sit back, his hold up play isn’t anywhere near the levels of Michail Antonio, who makes the pitch so big for West Ham and takes the pressure of his defenders.
In fairness, the Hammers have won four of the last six games with Haller leading the line so I might be talking complete nonsense. However, they lacked imagination against Crystal Palace and in the win over Aston Villa – a theory backed up by a combined xG figure of just 1.08 in those matches. No problems for Chelsea expected.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)
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