Jones Knows is again within the prediction chair and thinks Sheffield United can enhance their possibilities of a nice escape by beating Chelsea.
Tottenham Hotspur vs West Bromwich Albion, Sunday 12pm
Like many Premier League matches, the match consequence and right rating market signify no robust betting angles on this one. For the needs of a prediction, a house win is clearly the almost certainly consequence because the Baggies will wilt below vital attacking stress, like they’ve executed all season. But you already knew that.
However, West Brom to get caught offside three or extra occasions at 9/4 with Sky Bet does attraction for these in search of an angle in.
A swap to an unashamedly direct strategy below Sam Allardyce has seen an upturn within the quantity of occasions West Brom are getting caught offside. In 4 of the final 10 video games in all competitions, the Baggies have been caught offside three or extra occasions. And with Spurs glad to enable opposition loads of territory – solely Liverpool have caught extra gamers offside this season than Jose Mourinho’s aspect – then West Brom’s long-ball strategy can yield three offsides.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
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BETTING ANGLE: West Brom to have three or extra offsides (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Leicester City, Sunday 2.15pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League
This has low-scoring written throughout it. But the markets are in settlement with the below 2.5 targets value a lot shorter than to your common Premier League encounter at 8/13.
Despite having the ability to name again upon Jamie Vardy and Wilfred Ndidi for this one, I’m nonetheless not fairly ready to belief Leicester in a sport the place they will be allowed to have the ball and area in behind will likely be at a premium.
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Since thrashing Manchester City 5-2, in video games the place they’ve had extra possession that their opponents they’ve taken simply 12 factors from a attainable 33 out there with a median anticipated targets determine of simply 1.15 per fixture. That is not wherever close to top-four commonplace and simply may be the explanation why the Foxes will fall wanting persistently competing with the elite once more this marketing campaign.
Both fixtures final season between these two completed goalless and one other 0-0 is smart at 8/1.
A betting angle to contemplate is Youri Tielemans to decide up a reserving.
No crew have tried extra dribbles than Wolves this season with Pedro Neto and Adama Traore glad to reduce in and draw fouls from opponents. No Leicester participant has been dribbled previous greater than Tielemans (39) this season and he ranks third within the total rating of all gamers within the Premier League – solely Conor Gallagher and Bruno Fernandes have been skipped previous extra typically. The providing of 4/1 actually underestimates the possibilities of him choosing up his fifth reserving of the season.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0
BETTING ANGLE: Youri Tielemans to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Youri Tielemans is 4/1 to decide up a reserving this weekend
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League
Pep Guardiola is a totally different animal this season. No longer does he yearn for ‘stunning soccer’, all he cares about is ‘profitable soccer’, with a specific longing for clear sheets. In such a congested and frantic season his long-term technique of plotting the best way by the season steadily maybe may very well be his best masterstroke but.
City followers will detest me saying it, nevertheless it’s very Sir Alex Ferguson-like. And what did Ferguson do in large video games away from house? He’d take a level all day lengthy.
That’s why I believe City are a tad too quick at 21/20 right here for victory. If the sport is stage pegging with half-hour to go, Guardiola will say thanks very a lot.
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A standard theme this season in conferences between the highest three groups has been a lack of targets in accordance to what the market expects. All three fixtures involving Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United have ended as attracts with two of these ending 0-0.
It’s most actually related that Liverpool have not scored in any of their final three Premier League house video games, with their present goalless run at Anfield standing at 348 minutes. And if you throw in Manchester City conceding simply 13 targets in 21 Premier League video games this season, conserving a clear sheet in every of their final six, the possibilities of one other 0-0 look fairly believable.
More believable than the 16/1 on provide, I’d recommend.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (16/1 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Chelsea, Sunday 7.15pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League
Chelsea are susceptible at Bramall Lane with the 4/9 for an away win simply begging to be taken on.
It’s far too early to be making sweeping statements relating to Thomas Tuchel’s type and skill to take Chelsea locations.
I agreed with Jose Mourinho within the aftermath of Chelsea’s win at Spurs. For all their possession and silky build-up play at Tottenham, Chelsea scored by way of a penalty and Edouard Mendy did make extra saves than Hugo Lloris.
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Spurs weren’t unfortunate however Chelsea did not dominate the sport to the extent that many onlookers prompt. In the three video games below Tuchel, Chelsea have created simply two large probabilities in accordance to Opta – and a kind of was that Jorginho penalty. In that interval 15 groups have created extra large probabilities and contemplating Chelsea have performed Burnley and Wolves at house in that run, it is truly a very worrying statistic. Still need to again them at 4/9?
We’ve not seen Tuchel’s crew come below any vital stress defensively in his first three matches in cost both – however we would right here. And, with Thiago Silva lacking, they are often bought at.
One of Tuchel’s tactical tweaks has been to choose Marcos Alonso down the left aspect of his defence. He appears to belief him however those who have watched Alonso sufficient through the years know he is very poor positionally. Remember Chelsea’s first-half show in opposition to West Brom in September? Alonso was at fault for 2 of the three targets and by no means performed for Frank Lampard once more after that.
I’m anticipating the axis of Chris Basham and Jayden Bogle down the Blades’ proper to expose Alonso when Chris Wilder’s males get the territory. As my colleague Kate Burlaga identified, no centre-back has created extra probabilities or tried extra take-ons than Basham this season.
His link-up with Bogle was very savvy within the comeback win over West Brom – it was the Blades again to their finest. A efficiency stage that truly beat Chelsea by an mixture rating of 5-2 over two conferences between the groups final season.
Additionally, in his final three house matches the harmful Bogle has had eight pictures on purpose. He can hearth a shot at purpose on this one, particularly up in opposition to Alonso. One purpose would possibly simply be sufficient for Wilder’s boys who restricted the 2 Manchester golf equipment to simply two targets mixed of their latest away days. The 11/1 for the Blades to win with out conceding is actually a runner.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0
BETTING ANGLE: Sheffield United to keep away from defeat and Jayden Bogle to have one shot (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League
Trying to predict match outcomes and ends in the Premier League is a robust job at the very best of occasions however Leeds make it an unattainable one. Since drawing 0-0 with Arsenal on November 22 they’ve gained six and misplaced six of their final 12 matches. Apart from a low-key efficiency at house to Brighton they continue to be fairly constant of their course of however figuring out how their course of will have an effect on a sure sport by way of the consequence has been hurting my mind.
Yes, six of Leeds’ 9 Premier League wins this season have been in opposition to groups within the backside half however Palace thumped them 4-1 within the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park and Roy Hodgson’s males arrive right here with back-to-back wins below their belt. Like many Premier League soccer matches, all three match outcomes are simply argued with the chances on provide. With Palace’s harm troubles, I’ll edge in direction of a house win with no confidence behind it.
With the best way Leeds play at such relentless pace, the sport will get stretched on loads of events of their fixtures. Palace like to play on the break and rank fourth for many fouls gained this season within the Premier League.
Mateusz Klich often finds himself uncovered chasing again counters and it is no shock to see him ranked third of all gamers within the Premier League for fouls conceded (37). He ought to offer you a good run to decide up his sixth reserving of the season at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ADVICE: Mateusz Klich to be carded (13/5 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30pm
My religion in Aston Villa being a real top-six contender is wavering. Villa have misplaced 4 of their final six Premier League video games – as many as they’d of their earlier 18. Have groups labored out how to cease their intelligent interchanges by midfield? In their final two matches, Villa have solely registered 15 pictures and conceded 39 on their purpose.
Arsenal will not be affording them a lot area both on this one. According to anticipated targets conceded information, their season tally of 11.48 away from house ranks them because the fourth finest defence within the league. This is much more spectacular contemplating they’ve already performed Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United on the highway this season.
This one appears to be like set to be a low-scoring affair settled by a effective margin. I’m on the fence with the consequence.
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An angle to assault at an interesting value is Ollie Watkins to have a header on the right track with Sky Bet at 4/1. Only Patrick Bamford (22), Aleksandar Mitrovic (19) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (18) have had extra headers on purpose than the in-form Watkins this season with 5 of these hitting the goal. He managed to rating a header within the reverse fixture, too.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
ACTUAL RESULT: 1-0
BETTING ANGLE: Ollie Watkins to have a headed shot on the right track (4/1 with Sky Bet) – WON
Burnley vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
It could be a mistake to decide Burnley on their final two performances. They might have mustered simply three pictures throughout their final two Premier League video games (one vs Chelsea, two vs Man City), failing to register a single effort on the right track in these matches, however higher will be anticipated right here.
Saying that, the penny simply may need dropped with Brighton.
In their final two spectacular victories they have been relatively ruthless as a substitute of fruitless in each bins. All the efficiency information suggests their course of is certainly one of a top-half aspect and in the event that they’ve now discovered a steadiness inside their play at each ends of the pitch, a stand up the desk may very well be forthcoming, as highlighted on this column earlier than the Liverpool sport the place they had been 16/1 for a high 10 end.
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I believe they will nick this one.
The place of Leandro Trossard in an attacking central position simply off Neal Maupay has caught my eye, particularly in how Sky Bet have priced up their first goalscorer market. Despite scoring the winner in opposition to Tottenham and registering a shot on the right track in every of his final three appearances enjoying within the superior position, we’re ready to get a juicy 13/2 on him opening the scoring.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2
ACTUAL RESULT: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Leandro Trossard to rating first (13/2 with Sky Bet) – VOID
Premier League predictions: Jones Knows is again along with his insights
Newcastle United vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
They should have put one thing within the water up on Tyneside as Newcastle have turn into enjoyable to watch. There’s far more power within the crew and the again 4 are pushing larger up the pitch. In their final three matches, they’ve managed to hearth 56 makes an attempt at purpose – that is greater than they mustered of their earlier seven matches mixed earlier than that and Allan Saint-Maximin has but to play from the beginning.
Yes, Steve Bruce’s boys have misplaced two of these three fixtures however at the least now there’s a little bit of spark and enjoyment of their soccer. It’s all of the locals need.
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Southampton make the lengthy journey north with issues, too. This present four-game dropping run is the longest dropping run in Ralph Hasenhuttl’s league managerial profession though his injury-list is easing up.
It’s unlikely they will shut up store with the gamers they’ve out there so this may very well be an action-packed sport if Newcastle arrive in no-fear mode as soon as once more. With that in thoughts, I’m glad to take a swing on the 9/2 for Newcastle to register 16 or extra pictures at purpose. Also, Miguel Almiron is turning into an vital participant simply behind Callum Wilson and charges as a very attention-grabbing proposition to have a shot on the right track from outdoors the field at 4/1.
He’s had 4 pictures from vary in his final 4 matches, hitting the goal twice and crossbar as soon as. If you mix the 16 or extra pictures angle with the Almiron one, you get a tasty 28/1 shot. That’s value a swing.
The outright costs look fairly tight to me, so when doubtful play the draw.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-2
ACTUAL RESULT: 3-2
BETTING ANGLE: Miguel Almiron to have a shot on the right track from outdoors the world & Newcastle to have 16 or extra pictures (28/1 with Sky Bet) – LOST
Fulham vs West Ham United, Saturday 5.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League
West Ham United
Saturday sixth February 5:00pm
West Ham fluked their method to one other win on Wednesday evening… solely joking Hammers followers. No want to nibble at me.
A key facet in my world of creating worthwhile betting selections is to admit when new proof comes alongside to change a earlier mind-set. For West Ham to be able to dismantling each Crystal Palace and Aston Villa brings ahead the case that there is extra to this David Moyes crew than simply being reliant on a robust defensive course of and set items. It’s taken them to 38 factors – essentially the most factors they’ve had at this stage of a top-division season for 35 years.
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Michail Antonio is completely key to these spectacular latest performances. He’s now totally match and hitting efficiency ranges we noticed after the primary lockdown the place he was important to their Premier League survival. He’s now main the road in a far superior aspect to that one with the Czech duo of Tomas Soucek and Vladimír Coufal offering a lot metal alongside the ever-improving Declan Rice. What a participant he might turn into.
Antonio solely has two targets to his title in his final 5 matches however no participant within the Premier League has posted a larger anticipated targets quantity in that point (3.72). Against flaky Fulham, who mirror a lot of their gamers – silky to take a look at however go lacking at large moments in matches, he ought to discover one other method by to purpose. The 13/5 for an away win and Antonio to rating makes loads of sense.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2
ACTUAL RESULT: 0-0
BETTING ANGLE: Michail Antonio to rating and West Ham to win (13/5 with Sky Bet) – LOST
Manchester United vs Everton, Saturday 8pm, dwell on Sky Sports Premier League
Saturday sixth February 7:45pm
Everton are a large value right here at 5/1, aren’t they?
Carlo Ancelotti’s crew will not win any awards for his or her type of soccer, however they’ve gained seven of their opening 10 Premier League away video games, together with the final 4 on the bounce.
Only Tottenham and Manchester City have conceded fewer targets on the highway than Everton’s 10 this season as Ancelotti has proven his expertise and tactical nous to make the Toffees a crew with nice defensive unity. They’ll absolutely set-up to stifle United, who nonetheless do not look comfy making an attempt to break down well-oiled defences at house.
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If you rid the freakish win over Southampton out of your minds, then it’s extremely onerous to get carried away with United’s report when requested to make the working in video games. In house matches in opposition to West Brom, Wolves and Sheffield United, they scored simply three targets and managed just one at Old Trafford when confronted with Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham. They have additionally conceded 15 targets at house within the league to this point this season – greater than at this stage in any
earlier Premier League marketing campaign. And the anticipated targets in opposition to determine of 13.5 backs that poor metric up.
Everton are able to irritating the hosts and utilizing their countering abilities with Richarlison and Lucas Digne down the left, plus their large risk from set items, to make this a tough night for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
ACTUAL RESULT: 3-3
BETTING ANGLE: Everton to win to nil (11/1 with Sky Bet) – LOST
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