London Playbook: Not-budget day — Perfect leak timing — Sucks to w4mp – POLITICO

Good Friday morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio. Eleni Courea will likely be again to kick off subsequent week.

DRIVING THE DAY

NOT-BUDGET DAY: Prime Minister Liz Truss and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng take an enormous gamble this morning — ushering within the largest tax cuts in a long time within the hope of boosting British progress at a time of financial peril. Kwarteng will ship what the federal government is dubbing a “fiscal event” however the remainder of Westminster is aware of is a mini-budget that gained’t be in any respect mini. Instead, tens of billions of kilos will likely be scrubbed from the tax codes, to be plugged with authorities borrowing to maintain the ship afloat. 

Our little conflict on taxes: One senior Conservative MP quipped to Playbook that the federal government spin on its price range was akin to Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine — i.e. a conflict dressed up as a focused fight train. The dissembling additionally means impartial authorities economists have been banned from assessing the bundle of measures and producing financial forecasts in opposition to it, as would occur for a full price range.

How to current a not-budget: The Cabinet is assembly this morning to rubber stamp the plans, earlier than Kwarteng exits No. 11 Downing Street to hot-tail it to the Commons. He will ship a press release at 9.30 a.m. (assuming there aren’t any pressing questions) which is able to final about half-hour. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves will get to reply for about half that point, earlier than different MPs get to chime in for a few hours. When Kwarteng sits down after his first half-hour, a not-budget doc of about 30 pages will materialize on the federal government web site. 

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The pitch: In the Commons, Kwarteng will vow to break the “vicious cycle of stagnation” and convert it right into a “virtuous circle of growth,” in accordance to an in a single day press launch. “We will be bold and unashamed in pursuing growth — even where that means taking difficult decisions,” he’ll insist.

The backchat: Reeves has penned an in a single day piece within the FT providing a way of what she is going to inform the Commons. She argues that the long-serving Cabinet ministers, in a bid to “present themselves as agents of change,” will denounce the earlier six Conservative progress plans since 2010, “each announced with great fanfare but with little impact.” She provides that “the one constant over a decade of Tory government is low growth.”

Rach in opposition to the machine: The i’s Paul Waugh identified that Reeves and Kwarteng final clashed throughout the Commons as new MPs in 2010, when Kwarteng confused debt with deficit and despatched a handwritten be aware afterwards to thank her for correcting him. 

DETAILS, DETAILS: The Kwarteng assertion will likely be filled with content material for one thing that isn’t a price range. Playbook will take you thru what to count on.

All within the writing: Kwarteng and Truss have been holed up within the Cabinet room final night time placing the ultimate touches on the bundle, which the federal government has christened “The Growth Plan” (their capitalization). It’s set to embrace greater than 30 measures the pair hope will drive down inflation and enhance progress whereas not scarring the general public funds.

Starter: Kwarteng will reveal that 38 areas in England are bidding to set up the brand new “investment zones” Westminster has been listening to all about. Businesses inside their boundaries will profit from tax cuts and liberalized planning guidelines.

Main course: The centerpiece of the price range will likely be whopping tax cuts to companies and people in a bid to get Brits investing and spending. Alongside the reversal of the nationwide insurance coverage rise that Kwarteng introduced forward of time, the chancellor is anticipated to reverse the deliberate rise in company tax and minimize taxes on dwelling purchases. Times Political Editor Steven Swinford reckons these and extra might quantity to £50 billion.

Dessert: Kwarteng may also announce new legal guidelines to pace up main infrastructure initiatives throughout the U.Ok., concentrating on gas era, roads and rail. The authorities pointed to quite a few examples the place initiatives have taken muuuuuch longer than affordable to get by the planning and completion phases. A decade and a half to construct a single new tube line throughout London (which remains to be to open in full) is the one which boggles Playbook’s thoughts. 

Coffee: On high of all that, there are the opposite fine details we’ve heard this week which are anticipated to be in there: uncapping banker bonuses … welfare reforms to pressure extra claimants into work … reforms to varied monetary companies … a reversal within the minimize to tourism taxes (h/t Katy Balls).

Cheese … liqueurs … one other sandwich? Don’t count on that to be it. One Whitehall supply informed the Guardian staff that the bundle will include “more rabbits than Watership Down.”

THE THING IS … whether or not the plans will the truth is generate progress is an open query. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, will likely be on Politics Live at midday to supply his evaluation, whereas the IFS Twitter feed will likely be price looking ahead to its first response. 

Bear in thoughts: The British financial scenario appears to be like to be heading quick up the faecal creek in the intervening time, with the pound at its lowest stage in opposition to the greenback for many years; inflation hovering at round 10 p.c (householders who love horror motion pictures ought to learn this thread); rates of interest at their highest for nearly a decade and a half; and … er … a recession. 

Amid all that mess … there are fears that Trussonomics would possibly the truth is put a bomb underneath the whole circus. “The fear is that this is going to be deeply inflationary,” one MP informed the Times. Resolution Foundation boss Torsten Bell spelled out on this thread late final night time how “turbocharging” borrowing won’t be the perfect concept proper now.

The race in opposition to time hots up: While most Conservative MPs are prepared to give the Truss blueprint an opportunity, she doesn’t have time on her facet, my POLITICO colleague Annabelle Dickson writes in a walk-up piece to the not-budget. “I suspect there are many Conservative MPs who will be ready to drop her immediately if the economy doesn’t turn quickly,” a former minister informed Annabelle.

Vintage markets: Others assume the extra urgent hazard for Truss is the markets. “That is the audience that I think is more likely to constrain what they do, rather than either public opinion or Conservative parliamentary opinion,” David Gauke, a former chief secretary to the Treasury underneath Theresa May, stated.

More optimistic … are companies, who’re stoked concerning the reversal on nationwide insurance coverage contributions and are hoping for extra. Craig Beaumont from the Federation of Small Businesses (which led the marketing campaign on the nationwide insurance coverage difficulty) informed Playbook the bulletins “could mark the end of the ‘fuck business era’” — in reference to the well-known Boris Johnson quote the previous PM by no means fairly recovered from.

But in fact … essentially the most optimistic particular person within the room is Liz Truss, who is bound that Trussonomics is the trail ahead. “Lower taxes lead to economic growth, there’s no doubt in my mind about that,” she informed reporters this week. But there was little question in her thoughts when she joined the Lib Dems both, or when she referred to as for the monarchy to be abolished, or when she campaigned for Remain. Is having politicians who go balls-deep on their ideologies, then U-turn and go balls-deep on one thing else such an excellent concept? 

NOW HEAR THIS: The podcast my POLITICO colleague Jack Blanchard made about when budgets (and that features not-budgets) go improper could possibly be a pleasant time killer earlier than 9.30 a.m. Listen right here.

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LABOUR LAND

SCOOP OF THE DAY: Labour might pledge to abolish the House of Lords forward of the following election, in accordance to a leaked model of the constitutional overview former PM Gordon Brown has been placing collectively for Keir Starmer. The Guardian’s Jess Elgot has seen the doc, which suggests changing the higher chamber with an meeting of areas and nations, which might safeguard the structure and give you the chance to refer the federal government to the Supreme Court. 

It doesn’t finish there: The overview additionally proposes devolving financial powers, and a crackdown on requirements in authorities and parliament which would come with (do it, do it, do it) juries of residents ruling on complaints in opposition to MPs and ministers. Lots extra within the full write–up. 

PERFECT LEAK TIMING FOR … The highlight to fall on Labour as its convention kicks off in Liverpool this weekend (Sunday program later within the e-mail). Cue limitless questions on whether or not Labour ought to or will pledge to abolish the Lords. 

Expect to see at convention … a visitor look from Gary Neville, in accordance to Mirror political editor (as of tomorrow night time) John Stevens. He tweeted that the previous footballer has been working with Shadow Culture Secretary Lucy Powell on the social gathering’s method to soccer governance. 

Also count on to see … soundbites that don’t imply all that a lot however that make Labour sound large and arduous. “Punish, prevent, protect” would be the new mantra on crime, in accordance to Rachel Wearmouth within the New Statesman. No doubt Labour brainiacs stewed over the phrase order of that one for hours.

Don’t count on to see … cable agency Tratos, whose Conservative-donating boss Maurizio Bragagni confronted criticism from Labour Chair Anneliese Dodds over his feedback about Muslims in Britain. The Guardian’s Henry Dyer acquired the news that Tratos had purchased exhibition house on the occasion. 

Fingers crossed for … some precise Labour insurance policies, such because the plan for childcare that Bridget Phillipson promised this week. 

Inevitable rows: No doubt there will likely be bust-ups concerning the efficiency of the nationwide anthem and the continued deselections in Ilford South and Poplar and Limehouse.

Actual scandal? Al Jazeera launched a trailer final night time for a brand new documentary about Labour that could possibly be of curiosity or could possibly be some over-spun temper piece just like the one from 2017 about pro-Israel campaigners. 

Pre-conference enhance: The Mirror’s Dan Bloom reviews on new Opinium polling that finds 31 p.c of self-employed Brits would again Labour, in contrast to 25 p.c who would vote Conservative. The numbers have been 36 p.c for the Tories and 25 p.c for Labour on the 2019 election.

TRAIN TO CONFERENCE LISTENING: On this week’s Westminster Insider, Ailbhe Rea takes listeners on a whistle-stop tour of the speeches, fringe occasions, Champagne receptions and dangerous karaoke at political convention. 

What’s within the field? Emily Thornberry dishes the grime on karaoke, tight votes and the tried ousting of Tom Watson on the eve of convention 2019, whereas former Tory advisers Jamie Njoku-Goodwin and Tim Smith share the within monitor on behind-the-scenes jostling between Cabinet ministers. Also, the Mirror’s Mikey Smith discusses the famed convention “gaffe” — and the way he derailed Labour convention when he recorded Angela Rayner calling the Tories “scum.”

Never worry, Lib Dems: There’s a tribute to Glee Club too.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with any UQs (not anticipated) earlier than the Kwarteng assertion. Lib Dem MP Layla Moran has an adjournment debate on the proposed re-opening of Campsfield House immigration elimination heart.

😬😬😬 You don’t count on to hear a authorities minister going all lukewarm on insurance policies that have been introduced simply hours earlier, however that’s what Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith did on Question Time final night time when requested about fracking. “I’m fairly neutral on it, I want to see more evidence,” he stated. That one gained’t assist after the a number of assaults from Conservative MPs within the Commons over the plans. 

On a associated be aware … “Plans to block new North Sea oil and gas projects if they are incompatible with Britain’s climate goals have quietly been ditched,” in accordance to Adam Vaughan within the Times. 

SUCKS TO W4MP: Sky News has launched the second instalment of its “Open Secret” podcast by Liz Bates and Agnes Chambre on misconduct in parliament. It features a former Labour employees member revealing she was compelled to “scrub stains out of the carpet” in her MP’s workplace and one other who stated she had skilled “the most traumatic mental health breakdown I’ve ever had” working for an MP who would scream at her. Elsewhere, one Conservative staffer stated a colleague was fired for a social media submit her MP had completed herself whereas drunk. 

COMING ATTRACTIONS: Playbook hears that the rising expectation in Westminster is that the coronation of King Charles III will happen on June 2, 2023. It’s the identical date Queen Elizabeth II had her coronation and naturally 12 months on from her seventieth jubilee.

MUST DO BETTER: Private school-educated Education Secretary Kit Malthouse wrote in his pupil uni paper that individuals who went to complete colleges acquired a “less-than-adequate education,” the Telegraph reveals this morning. A pal of Malthouse informed the paper it was a “satirical” letter and the minister doesn’t and didn’t maintain such views for actual.

For the document: Your Playbook writer went to a complete college and got here out with a less-than-adequate schooling — but it surely wasn’t simply the fault of the college.

WE COULDN’T NOT MENTION: Fellow gossip sheet PopBitch had a few glorious political nuggets in its newest version final night time: It revealed rumors that “one prominent cabinet minister is already said to have struck up an extramarital affair with one of the newly installed advisors at No.10.” It additionally stated deputy Labour chief Angela Rayner was noticed on a prepare to Stockport handing a dropped financial institution card again to its proprietor with the quip: “Good job I’m not a Tory.”

BREXIT DIVIDEND LATEST: A gathering of EU and U.Ok. officers in Brussels yesterday failed to unblock Britain’s post-Brexit participation in EU schemes, together with the Horizon Europe science analysis program, which the European Commission has placed on maintain in retaliation over the Northern Ireland protocol row.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Nominations for the election of latest science and overseas affairs committee chairs will shut at 3.30 p.m. on October 11, with a poll happening the following day if mandatory. The timetables have been revised after the queen died and parliament went on hiatus.

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BEYOND THE M25

FROM RUSSIA WITH FEAR: Scores of movies on-line present the queues of vehicles at Russian borders as males try to keep away from being forcibly enlisted to combat in Ukraine, after flights bought out. There’s plenty of good writing round concerning the frantic scenario, particularly from the Guardian’s Pjortr Sauer, who spoke to over a dozen women and men who’ve fled Russia prior to now 48 hours, and Andrew Roth.

Zelenskyy response: In his night handle final night time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed for Russian troopers to protest, combat again, or give up to Ukrainian captivity. “These are your choices if you’d like to survive,” he stated. Watch it right here.

As for Europe … Germany signalled that it could be prepared to absorb Russians who’ve fled out of objection to the conflict. Elsewhere, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic all struck a distinct tone. The BBC has the total particulars.

ROMAN’S REDEMPTION? Ex-Chelsea proprietor Roman Abramovich — and his swish non-public jet — performed a key function in getting the 5 freed British POWs out of Russia, the Sun’s Amir Razavi and Paul Sims report.

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MEDIA ROUND

Leveling Up Secretary Simon Clarke broadcast spherical: Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … LBC (7.40 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.).

Leveling Up Minister Paul Scully will likely be filling in for Clarke on Times Radio (7.50 a.m.) … GB News (8.20 a.m.) … Good Morning Britain (8.30 a.m.) … and talkTV (8.44 a.m.).

Also on Kay Burley: Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden (8.05 a.m.) … Treasury committee Chairman Mel Stride (8.20 a.m.).

Also on Today program: Pat McFadden (7.50 a.m.) … Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan (8.30 a.m.).

Times Radio Breakfast: Former Pensions Minister Ros Altmann (7.30 a.m.) … Former deputy venture supervisor at NATO Allied Command Transformation in Virginia, adjunct professor of European Security at Georgetown University Iulia Joja (7.40 a.m.) … Pat McFadden (8.35 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Crossbench peer Terence Burns (7.20 a.m.) … Social Mobility Commission Chair Katharine Birbalsingh (8.20 a.m.).

Also on TalkRADIO breakfast: Education committee Chairman Robert Halfon (7 a.m.) … Pat McFadden (8.21 a.m.) … Former Lib Dem chief Vince Cable (9 a.m.).

Politics Live (BBC Two 9 a.m.): Labour MP Angela Eagle … Tory MP Helen Whately … IFS boss Paul Johnson … Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Philp … His shadow Pat McFadden … SNP MP Stephen Flynn … Lib Dem chief Ed Davey.

Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 and 11.30 p.m.): Mirror columnist Susie Boniface and deputy editor of the Spectator Freddy Gray.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s title to see its entrance web page.)

Daily Express: Go for progress! Big tax cuts to herald new period.

Daily Mail: Biggest tax cuts for 30 years!

Daily Mirror: One extra little one misplaced to knife epidemic.

Daily Star: Don’t inform ’em your title, Pike

Financial Times: BoE will increase charges by 0.5 proportion factors and hints at large November rise.

HuffPostUK: Will mini-budget save U.Ok. ‘in recession’?

i: Millions face mortgage hike as U.Ok. heads into recession.

Metro: Back from demise row.

POLITICO UK: Liz Truss’ tax-cutting gamble.

PoliticsHome: Government confirms National Insurance rise will likely be reversed from November.

The Daily Telegraph: Chancellor warn Bank to get grip on inflation.

The Guardian: Economy in recession, says Bank as Kwarteng unveils mini-budget.

The Independent: Chancellor axes planning guidelines in bid for progress.

The Sun: Red Rom will get Brit POWs out — Abramovich with them on jet.

The Times: Tax minimize bonanza in bid to cease the financial rot.

TODAY’s NEWS MAGS

The Economist: Should Europe fear? Giorgia Meloni and the risk from the Italian proper.

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

Chopper’s Politics: Christopher Hope interviews former Labour spinner Peter Mandelson (following on from his current News Agents look) and Shadow Leveling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy.

EU Confidential: France’s Emmanuel Macron, Spain’s Pedro Sanchez and EU overseas coverage chief Josep Borrell are amongst a star-studded forged of visitors on POLITICO’s flagship podcast, recorded at UNGA in New York.

Inside Briefing: The IfG staff preview Labour convention with former Ed Miliband aide Ayesha Hazarika.

Newscast: The BBC staff interview Cobra beer boss Karan Bilimoria on the Truss economic system plan.

Politics Weekly UK: The Guardian’s John Harris talks concerning the Truss economic system plan with economist Miatta Fahnbulleh and former Treasury Minister David Gauke.

The Bunker: Journalist Gavin Esler discusses Truss’ deregulation plans with Alex Andreou, Miatta Fahnbulleh and Andrew Harrison

The News Agents: Emily Maitlis, Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall interview Labour deputy chief Angela Rayner.

The Open Secret: Sky’s Liz Bates hears about parliament’s bullying drawback from a number of political staffers.

The Rundown: The PolHome staff talk about the Truss economic system plan with Treasury committee Chairman Mel Stride and IFS chief Paul Johnson.

Westminster Insider: Ailbhe Rea speaks to Labour’s Emily Thornberry, the Mirror’s Mikey Smith and former SpAds Jamie Njoku-Goodwin and Tim Smith.

YOUR WEEKEND IN POLITICS

LABOUR CONFERENCE: The bash kicks off on Sunday morning in Liverpool, with chief Keir Starmer main tributes to the late Queen Elizabeth II (10.45 a.m.). He’ll be adopted on the primary stage on Sunday by key Labour figures together with his deputy Angela Rayner (11.25 a.m.) … General Secretary David Evans (11.40 a.m.) … Party Chair Anneliese Dodds (11.50 a.m.) … and nationwide marketing campaign co-ordinator Shabana Mahmood (1.20 p.m.). The enjoyable stuff will be discovered subsequent week — or on the fringes.

Picks of the Sunday fringe: A dialogue on profitable the grey vote with Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth (midday) … The Tony Blair Institute has despatched a hopeful invite to Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy for its session on “how to make Brexit work” (12.30 p.m.) … The Labour buddies of Ukraine fringe occasion options Ukrainian Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko (3.30 p.m.) … Editor of the Guardian Katherine Viner will grill Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham for an hour and a half (5.30 p.m.) … and for anybody having an excessive amount of enjoyable, make certain to catch former Labour chief Jeremy Corbyn and different Labour lefties at an occasion titled “What would a nuclear war look like?” (6 p.m.).

LIVERPOOL WEATHER: ⛅️⛅️⛅️ All weekend.

SUNDAY SHOWS, dwell from Liverpool: The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg will likely be joined by Labour chief Keir Starmer (BBC One, 9 a.m.).

Sky’s Sophy Ride will likely be speaking to Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former Labour spinner Peter Mandelson (Sky News, 8.30 a.m.).

Kate McCann and Adam Boulton on Times Radio will likely be speaking to Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds (Times Radio, 10 a.m.).

Andrew Neil will likely be speaking to former Chancellor George Osborne and former Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls for the return of his present (Channel 4, 6.15 p.m.).

Westminster Hour host Carolyn Quinn will likely be speaking to Tory MP Tom Hunt, the i’s Paul Waugh, Liverpool University’s Jon Tonge and a Labour MP TBC (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.).

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: 🌦🌦🌦 Some solar and a few rain. Highs of 19C.

BEST WISHES TO: Cabinet Office cat Ossie — pictured right here with CDL Nadhim Zahawi — as he recovers from a day in emergency care after consuming lily leaves.

SPOTTED: At the leaving drinks for John Stevens on the Clarence in Whitehall, as he strikes from the Mail to the Mirror … the Mail’s Jason Groves, Martin Beckford and Harriet Line … the Mail on Sunday’s Claire Ellicott … No. 10’s Alex Wild … SpAd Rhiannon Padley … ex-SpAds James Starkie, Josh Grimstone, Charlie Rowley, Oliver (Sonic) Lewis and Jamie Njoku-Goodwin … Labour advisers Nicola Bartlett and Sarah Brown … the Times’ Steve Swinford, Henry Zeffman, Matt Dathan, Larisa Brown, Matt Chorley, Patrick Maguire and Tom Payne … the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar, Bree Allegretti and Dan Sabbagh … the Sunday Times’ Harry Yorke … the Sun’s Ryan Sabey … the Sun on Sunday’s Kate Ferguson … the Mirror’s Dan Bloom, Aletha Adu and Ash Cowburn … Sky’s Mhari Aurora, Tamara Cohen and Joe Pike … the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith, Dan Martin and Tony Diver … the i’s Hugo Gye … the Spectator’s Katy Balls … the New Statesman’s Rachel Wearmouth and plenty of extra. Here’s a few pics. 

SPAD MOVES: Former Crosby Textor spinner Rory Boden has been appointed media SpAd to Conservative chair Jake Berry.

SO LONG, FAREWELL: Top legislative knowledgeable Christopher James has left Downing Street after serving to to combat quite a few Boris Johnson battles in opposition to parliament. He provides heartfelt thanks to colleagues on this Twitter thread. 

WHO IS THE GREENEST OF THEM ALL? Who is your decide for essentially the most influential particular person on inexperienced points in Europe? POLITICO is compiling an inventory of the personalities who will form atmosphere coverage over the following 12 months. The Green 28 checklist will likely be unveiled at a web based occasion on October 12. Nominate somebody right here (and don’t all vote for Alok Sharma directly).

BIRTHDAYS: Plaid Cymru chief Adam Price … Lib Dem peer Floella Benjamin … U.Ok. Ambassador to the U.S. Karen Pierce … U.Ok. Ambassador to Italy Ed Llewellyn … Labour peer Jenny McIntosh … Former Tory peer Joan Hanham … Crossbench peer Colin Low … Former UKIP MEP William Legge … Panorama’s Hilary Andersson … Labour adviser Emma Barnes … Tim Farron’s former chief of employees Ben Williams … and barrister Cherie Blair turns 68.

Happy belated birthday to … Executive Director for Government Communication Alex Aiken.

Celebrating over the weekend: Tamworth MP Chris Pincher … Trade Minister Conor Burns … Home Office Minister Jeremy Quin … Shadow Justice Minister Anna McMorrin … Stockton South MP Matt Vickers … Stormont Health Minister Robin Swann … Trade Envoy to Algeria Richard Spring … Herald columnist Iain Macwhirter … Sunday Times Executive Editor Ben Preston … Shadow Brexit Minister Jenny Chapman … Crossbench peer Vivien Stern … Tory peer Philippa Roe … Tory peer Liz Redfern … Tory peer Aamer Sarfraz … Midlands Connect spinner and former Tim Farron aide Paul Butters … Times Radio’s Matt Chorley … The Independent’s John Rentoul … NSPCC boss Peter Wanless … Former Tory staffer Tom Fieldhouse … Former U.Ok. Ambassador to Kuwait Michael Davenport.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

primarily based on website supplies www.politico.eu

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